“We have no eternal allies, and we have no perpetual enemies. Our interests are eternal and perpetual, and those interests it is our duty to follow.”
Henry Palmerston, Henry Palmerston, British Prime Minister’s message to the British Parliament in 1848.
Saturday March 9, is the clash of interests!
JIMI AGBAJE! THE SS TITANIC OR THE NS YAMAL?
Question 1: Is Jimi Agbaje the Titanic or is he the NS Yamal? Saturday March 9, holds the answer!
The Titanic was a British ship that struck an iceberg and sank! The Yamal is a Russian ship; an Ice breaker (or a ship designed to break ice) it rams into Icebergs and shatters them.
“The night of April 14, 1912, the third day of the Titanic’s maiden voyage….From the surface, the ship missed the iceberg by all counts, but underneath, a protruding fragment of ice ripped a hole in the Titanic’s hull…..no question about it. He predicted that there was an hour or an hour and a half left before the giantess would slip to the watery bottom of the Atlantic.”https://adventure.howstuffworks.com/titanic5.htm
Edward J. Smith was the distinguished captain of the ill-fated ship.
“NS Yamal (“атомный ледокол Ямал”) is Russian nuclear icebreaker. “NS” stands for “nuclear ship”. The vessel is state-owned (by the Russian Federation)” https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cruisemapper.com/amp/ships/Yamal-icebreaker-1765
Question 2: Will Agbaje shatter or be sunk?
IGBOS: THE “SWING STATE” VOTE IN THE STATE.
“In American politics, the term swing state refers to any state that could reasonably be won by either the Democratic or Republican presidential candidate.” https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swing_state
By a strange coincidence of voting numbers, just as the South West held the keys to victory as the hinge that decided which direction victory swung (a fact that worked for Jonathan in 2011, for Buhari in 2015 and 2019) the Igbo block vote are the “swing state” votes in the state, that are a source of concern to both Sanwo-olu and Agbaje.
AGBAJE’S WAR PLAN AGAINST TINUBU’S HEGEMONY
(Rhetorical) Question 3: Has Jimi Agbaje put in place a formidable structure on which to ascend power?
Agbaje’s plan against Tinubu’s hegemony seems to be: volume of dissident and disenchanted Yoruba voices + Igbo “swing state” votes= Alausa.
“The Yoruba Self Determination Advancement Forum has said the group will liaise with other ethnic nationalities in Lagos State to rescue the state from what it described as Asiwaju Bola Tinubu hegemony ahead of the 2019 elections” https://www.google.com/amp/s/punchng.com/yoruba-group-backs-agbaje-kicks-against-tinubus-dominance/amp/
The quest to deploy the vast numbers of game changing Igbo votes by Agbaje has revived the the Igbo/Yoruba political differences, that has the unfortunate incident at Okota as its ground zero, with the Igbo being viewed as territorial expansionist.
PERCEPTION: AGBAJE AN “AFONJA”? TWO CONTRASTING POSITIONS FROM NAIRALAND’S DIALOGUE.
Position 1: The Antagonist: Sunkoye’s 8:57am article, published on April 10, 2015, in Nairaland, which he titled: “Is Jimi Agbaje The Modern Prince Afonja Of Oyo Empire?”, in which he wrote:
“OYO is Just like Lagos Empire with political and economic influence across Southwest beyond. Lagos is like a bride that every region want an alliance with.
This recent political attitude of procuring other tribes to get block vote pose a similar drive in history of the ambitious prince….the outcome of Lagos Election will sure determine a lot of things in Yoruba Destiny. not just now but future Generations.” https://www.nairaland.com/2247425/jimi-agbaje-modern-prince-afonja
Position 2: The Protagonist: An anonymous respondent at 9:13am, on the same day, (April 10, 2015) in a response titled: “Re: Is Jimi Agbaje The Modern Prince Afonja Of Oyo Empire?” wrote:
“Tinubu a man from Osun has the right to aspire for the position of governor in Lagos State state brought a yes man to power to protect his dynasty after stealing the state to high heaven (governor emeritus), but Agbaje, a true son of the soil does not have the right to aspire for the number office in his state?” https://www.nairaland.com/2247425/jimi-agbaje-modern-prince-afonja
Ajibola Olaniyi, in his article, in the Daily post titled: “Osun election: Those calling us foreigners are dunce, nitwits -Tinubu”, provided the following information:
“The National leader of the ruling All Progressives Congress, APC, and former Governor of Lagos State, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu has described those calling Lagos-based politicians foreigners as “bunch of dunce and nitwits.”
Tinubu made this known at the rally organised by the party on Thursday in Osogbo, the Osun State capital” https://www.google.com/amp/dailypost.ng/2018/09/06/osun-election-calling-us-foreigners-dunce-nitwits-tinubu/amp/
THE PERCEPTION WAR
“Mao Tse Tung (”On the protracted war”, 1938) once said that ”In order to win victory we must try our best to seal the eyes and the ears of the enemy, making him blind and deaf, and to create confusion in the minds of enemy commanders, driving them insane”. His statement addresses what we can see as perception warfare.” Henrik Friman
Saturday March 9 is war
Perception is a strategic weapon of tactical deployment, with grand Strategic consequences, in the political war of building and SUSTAINING a reputation in the mind of the electorate. In politics, Perception war is the conflict of reputation by two opposing camps in the political space; Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump made the point.
MEDIA: THE VEHICLE OF PERCEPTION WAR.
The aspirant with the more efficient and effective media presence, has a better chance of enforcing (by means of propaganda) his chances of winning the perception war, by the principle of firepower….. Joseph Paul Goebbels, Hitler’s World War minister of Propaganda and Culture made the point in the crudest of ways
Robert Edwin Herzstein and the editors of the Time-Life’s encyclopedia, published in 1980, titled: “Nazi” captured Goebbels position under the title: “Harnessing the Power of the National Press”, on the 126th page, this way: “A Nationalist Socialist editor never is a Journalist exclusively,” advised a German newsman in 1935, ‘but always and foremost a propagandist.’ In that spirit, Berlin correspondents from papers throughout the Reich, and editors of newspapers in the capital, gathered each day at the Propaganda Ministry to be told what to print.”
The encyclopedia, added this on the 124th page: “Goebbels was the absolute czar of the press, radio, motion pictures and the arts……. There was nothing subtle about Goebbels’s campaign. ‘The ranks and file are usually much more primitive than we imagine,’ he once declared. ‘Propaganda must therefore be essentially simple and repetitious”
Firepower is defined as: “The destructive capacity of guns, missiles, or a military force (used with reference to the number and size of guns available)” https://en.oxforddictionaries.com/definition/firepower.
When the delivery system of “guns, missiles, or a military force”, are replaced in the context of this article with media; radio, TV, press and New Media, the one who enjoys efficient media deployment, or “media firepower” is more likely to win the perception war
THE BOTTOM LINE OF THE PERCEPTION:
The bottom line of the perception war is this:
Question 3: Who between Agbaje and Tinubu’s protege Sanwoolu is perceived as Afonja?
The political perception of Afonja is in the negative and the individual that carries that perception has a larger chance of losing the perception war and with that the election……the absolute czar of the press that Goebbels was is on Sanwo-olu’s side, this has tilted the perception war of the reputation of Afonja to Jimi Agbaje. Going by that, Agbaje’s chances of turning out to be the Titanic is stronger than his chances of showing up as the Yamal on Saturday, but there is a word called SURPRISE!
MONROE’S DOCTRINE RESPONSE OF AWOLOWO BY SANWO-OLU’S CAMP
“Monroe Doctrine…a principle of US policy, originated by President James Monroe, that any intervention by external powers in the politics of the Americas is a potentially hostile act against the US.” https://www.google.com/search?q=monroe+doctrine+definition&oq=Monroe+doctrine&aqs=chrome.2.69i57j0l3.2915j0j4&client=ms-android-transsion-infinix-rev2&sourceid=chrome-mobile&ie=UTF-8
Sanwo-olu’s camp has responded to Agbaje’s stronger appeal to the Igbo “swing vote” with Awolowo’s deployment of Monroe Doctrine to the effect that Agbaje is the PERCEIVED as “Afonja” of Lagos who has compromised the vital interest of the South West. Like it happened in 1951, when Awolowo evoked the Monroe Doctrine to induce a cross-carpeting from Azikiwe to Awolowo, sowing the seed of discord between both men, Jimi Agbaje’s perception as the Afonja is expected to be the catalyst that will trigger a mass South Western exodus to Sanwo-olu, resulting in Agbaje’s Titanic iceberg crash.
VITAL INTEREST OF THE SOUTH WEST
“vital interests as developments that could concretely affect the security or economic future of America and our citizens.” Edwin Feulner. https://www.heritage.org/political-process/report/what-are-americas-vital-interests
By substituting, America with the South West, the point is clear. The concept of raison d’État, understood within the context of the South West, makes the meaning of vital interest clearer.
“The national interest, often referred to by the French expression raison d’État (“reason of State”), is a country’s goals and ambitions, whether economic, military, cultural or otherwise.”https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_interest
AWOLOWO THE ASIWAJU OF YORUBA INTEREST:
“…the difference between Awo and Zik was this – Awo was a seasoned political animal who understood that politics is first about self-interest. Zik had his head in the clouds. Unfortunately, Zik, after the defeat, rather than staying back in the West and becoming opposition, went back to the East, in order to get into power.” https://www.google.com/amp/s/guardian.ng/features/awo-vs-zik-and-how-it-affects-southern-nigeria-today/amp
Observation: self-interest, used to describe Awolowo, must not be misunderstood as personal interest that politicians of our day exhibit. For Awolowo, it was the vital and Strategic Interest of the South West, which he esteemed above his personal interest to the point of his personal liberty, on the contrary, many politicians of our day who claim “service to my people” (the most fraudulent political statement of fraud) hide behind the facade of those lying words to build FRAUDULENT FINANCIAL empires of political influence…. names like Saraki, James Ibori and even Sanwolu’s principal, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, are prominent.
In his March 28, 1966 letter to Ironsi, (who in response ordered his release in July 1966, contrary to popular opinion) Awolowo wrote:
“On two different occasions I was offered, first the post of Deputy Prime Minister (before May 1962), and second that of Deputy Governor-General (in August 1962), if I would agree to fold up the Opposition and join in a National Government. I declined the two offers because they were designed exclusively to gratify my self-interest, with no thought of fostering any political moral principle which could benefit the people of Nigeria.” https://www.thenewsnigeria.com.ng/2016/09/awolowos-50-year-old-letter-from-prison-7-reasons-he-wanted-ironsi-to-release-him-his-colleagues/
It will be recalled, that to protect the vital interest of the South West in 1951, by the South Westerners themselves (who know those interests better) there was a cross over from the NCNC to the AG, that shifted the majority from Azikiwe to Awolowo, the action must have had its roots in the Afonja affair that resulted in the Fulani numerical minority becoming the political majority and the Yoruba; the numerical majority, becoming the political minority in the traditional power play of Ilorin, where the Emir of Ilorin is Fulani. The Yoruba probably didn’t want that bit of ancient history repeated in the modern politics of the 50s…..the paradigm shift happened.
“In 1951 the first celebrated cross carpeting episode occurred in Nigeria; which consequently robbed Dr. Nnamdi Azikiwe the chance to lead the government’s business of Western Nigeria.
…… Yoruba members of the National Council for Nigerian and the Cameroon (NCNC) were lobbied to cross over to the Action Group (AG) to stop Dr. Nnamdi Azikiwe, an Igbo man, from becoming the premier of Western Region. This heralded the massive cross over to the AG. As the leader of the NCNC, Azikiwe was to be the Premier of Western Nigeria following the elections of 1951 with Chief Obafemi Awolowo, a Yoruba man and the leader of Action Group, as the leader of the opposition in the Regional House of Assembly. The NCNC won 42 seats out of 80, but within 24 hours 20 of them had cross carpeted to AG.” https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.vanguardngr.com/2018/02/nigeria-political-cross-carpeting-danger-democracy/amp/
THE FEAR OF AN AZIKIWE AS PREMIER OF THE WEST
The Owo Prince, under the title: “A STRONG MESSAGE TO NDIGBO copied from “FRIENDS IKOYI CLUB 1938”, wrote:
“Dr Azikiwe insulted their sensibility, abused their generosity and trust.Why would he,an igbo,wish to be premier of the West and then install an igbo,as premier of the east.”
The fears of an Azikiwe as premier of the West by the Westerners was simple.
Question 4: If a conflict of interest arose, that pitched the VITAL INTEREST of Western Nigeria, against the VITAL INTEREST of Eastern Nigeria, with Azikiwe from the East, as Premier, WHAT was the guarantee that he would speak for the West against the East, even though Azikiwe, played a prominent role in the emergence of a Fulani, Alhaji Umaru Altine as the first mayor of Enugu in 1956?
Inside Arewa, the online site notes:
“Nnamdi Azikiwe’s political machine made it possible for Alhaji Umaru Altine to become the first Mayor of Enugu…… to Richard Sklar, An American political scientist who authored the book “Nigerian Political Parties”, Mallam Umaru Altine who hailed from the old Sokoto Province of the defunct region of Northern Nigeria and who served as President of the Enugu Branch of the National Council of Nigeria and Cameroons (NCNC) was elected the first Mayor of Enugu in 1956.” http://insidearewa.com.ng/2018/08/09/mallam-umaru-altine-the-fulani-that-became-the-first-mayor-of-enugu/
Question 5: Based on the evidence Zik’s influence in the emergence of Alhaji Umaru Altine a Fulani from Sokoto as the first Mayor of Enugu, were the fears valid?
Question 6: Umaru Altine a Fulani was elected as Mayor, Zik was to be elected as Premier, the sphere of influence of the mayor was restricted to Enugu; one city. On the contrary, the sphere of political influence of the Premier, covered the entire region, under such circumstances, in the event of an East vs West clash of interest, where would Zik stand?
THE MOVIE THE TITANIC
There was a script called the Titanic and there will be a movie on Saturday, just as there was a man called Afonja and there is a word called perception.
“James Cameron’s Titanic is a massive global success” ( https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/1998/02/tita-f25.html )
That was how David Walsh, captured the movie, the Titanic in his 25th February 1998 review of the film.
Question 7: As “James Cameron’s Titanic (was) a massive global success”, will Jimi Agbaje’s attempt make him the NS Yamal; the ice breaker that will demystify and break the “iceberg political structure” of Bola Ahmed Tinubu?
…….Not very likely, but there is a word called SURPRISE. There is a world of difference between a movie and reality.
Question 8: Will Agbaje’s perception as the “Afonja” of Lagos become the Iceberg that will sink him in the political waters of Saturday March 9 or will he over come it as the NS Yamal, shattering Tinubu’s time tested formidable political empire?
One thing is clear, on March 9, there will be a collusion, a movie!
What is not clear is what the title of the movie would be. From the perspective of the different viewers that are watching,
Would it be:
• The Titanic for some?
• The NS Yamal for others?
• Or even Afonja for others?